2026 Summer Box Office Predictions

Forecasting the top 10 domestic earners of the blockbuster movie season

Grogu in Lucasfilm's THE MANDALORIAN AND GROGU. Photo courtesy of Lucasfilm. © 2026 Lucasfilm Ltd™. All Rights Reserved.

Over at the Movies and Marketing podcast we do a summer movie draft each year (you can listen to the 2026 summer movie draft here).

The premise of the draft is pretty simple: Each team picks seven movies. The team whose movies have the highest combined domestic box office total at the end of the summer wins.

To prepare for the draft, I craft a “draft board” where I project how much the top movies will make at the box office. I use this to determine the order I make my picks (with some strategic variation thrown in).

With this year’s draft now complete, I figured I’d share my projections here today...

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My Predictions: Top 10 Movies at the U.S. Box Office This Summer

Note: I define the summer movie season as Memorial Day weekend through Labor Day weekend (sorry, people, late April/early May is not summer). So any movie released this year between Friday, May 22, and Friday, Sept 4, is eligible.

Here is my anticipated top 10 box office performers of the summer (in reverse order for dramatic effect)—including how much they’ll rake in and a little bit of insight into what my thinking was:

10. The End of Oak Street

Release Date: August 14

Projected U.S. Box Office: $85 Million

It’s clear from the release date and marketing that Warners Bros. is positioning The End of Oak Street to be this year’s Weapons. That movie, released in August last year, went on to make $150 million. While I don’t think Oak Street will quite reach that level, I do think the trailer is pretty good (giving off a little bit of an old-school Spielberg vibe) and the studios have once again inexplicably left August wide open.

9. Scary Movie

Release Date: June 5

Projected U.S. Box Office: $95 Million

Last summer, The Naked Gun made a decent $52 million. Can Scary Movie top that? I think so. This is a franchise that debuted in 2000 with $157 million at the U.S. box office. The next three sequels all flirted with $100 million before 2013’s Scary Movie 5 put the series to rest with $32 million. That was 13 years ago. So there’s a lot of new material to mine and an audience that grew up with these movies.

8. Disclosure Day

Release Date: June 12

Projected U.S. Box Office: $110 Million

As a kid who was raised on the movies of director Steven Spielberg, this is one of my most anticipated movies. But I don’t think Spielberg has the same clout with the new generation. Early trailers received a mild response and Universal just isn’t marketing this as well as they could (compare it to what Warner Bros. is doing with The End of Oak Street). Mix that with the fact that Ready Player One, a more commercial film released in a pre-2020 world, capped out at $137 domestic and my expectations are tempered. Still, it has a great cast and a legendary director, so there’s a chance it could break out.

7. Supergirl

Release Date: June 26

Projected U.S. Box Office: $145 Million

Just last summer, Superman made $354 million in the United States. So why am I so much lower on this? Well, that movie had some built-up hype (it had been nearly a decade since Zach Snyder’s super-verse), it promised a new take on the character, and superhero savant James Gunn was at the helm. This one has a fairly uninspiring trailer and the burden of comparison. That said, if it surprises everyone by being better than anticipated it could fly much higher.

6. Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu

Release Date: May 22

Projected U.S. Box Office: $265 Million

The world is down on Star Wars right now. After The Rise of Skywalker and many TV shows that failed to land with viewers, the once-bulletproof brand is now a box-office question mark. The Mandalorian is one of the more beloved Star Wars series and Grogu has become an icon, but many are predicting this to only do Solo numbers ($213 million domestic). I think there will be a little more love for this movie with Jon Favreau at the helm.

5. Moana (Live Action)

Release Date: July 10

Projected U.S. Box Office: $295 Million

Perhaps no movie on this list has caused me more hand-wringing than Moana. What to make of this movie (and the status of Disney’s live-action remake project) at this point? The trailers look awful and it feels too soon for nostalgia, but will people show up anyway just for the music and memeability? I have no idea. While I don’t necessarily think this will be a Snow White-level bomb ($87 million), I called this closer to The Little Mermaid ($298 million) than Lilo and Stitch ($423 million). But I might be very wrong on this.

4. The Odyssey

Release Date: July 17

Projected U.S. Box Office: $325 Million

I’m buying into The Odyssey hype, though there are good reasons not to. Sure, director Christopher Nolan propelled his last film—a three-hour drama about the physicist who helped develop the atomic bomb—to $330 million domestic. But that was aided, at least in some part, by the Barbenheimer phenomenon. If you look at his previous non-Batman movies (excluding Tenant, which was released during COVID): Interstellar made $188 million and Dunkirk made $189 million. That’s pretty clear evidence that this movie will land at the $200 million mark. And yet I think Nolan is riding a wave of momentum right now that it’s gonna be tough to stop. He’s become a brand—like Spielberg once was. And IMAX has also become much more of a powerhouse than it was in the days of Interstellar and Dunkirk. Finally, this movie has a stacked cast of old and young stars. When you think about it in that light, $300 million+ not only seems reasonable, it might be the floor.

3. Minions & Monsters

Release Date: July 1

Projected U.S. Box Office: $350 Million

This one is pretty straightforward. In 2022, Minions: The Rise of Gru made $370 million. In 2024, Despicable Me 4 made $361 million. These movies always come out around July 4 weekend and they typically make around the same amount. This summer has more family movies and there could be some franchise fatigue setting in, but I think Minions are about as reliable a box office bet as you can find.

2. Toy Story 5

Release Date: June 19

Projected U.S. Box Office: $425 Million

Some are predicting an Inside Out 2 explosion for this film. I don’t see it. That film made $653 million back in 2024, riding a wave of nostalgia from kids who had grown up with the movie. The difference was it had been almost 10 years since the original Inside Out hit theaters—and the movie never had a sequel before. This is the fifth Toy Story movie, with the last one coming in 2019. Toy Story 4, which had a near identical June release date, ended up making $434 million in a pre-COVID world when movies just generally made more money. I know it’s a beloved franchise, but why should we expect Toy Story 5 to put up better numbers than its predecessor?

1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Release Date: July 31

Projected U.S. Box Office: $550 Million

The last Spider-Man live-action movie came out five years ago and made a whopping $814 million (just in the U.S.!). That movie had the gimmick of bringing together Spider-Men from various movies over the years—which felt pretty epic. This one doesn’t have a hook like that, but it does bring back Tom Holland and Zendaya. And if there’s one thing we know about Spidey, he puts butts in seats. So if Spider-Man: Homecoming made $335 million and No Way Home made $814, I’m looking at this one to split the difference and land somewhere in the middle.

Potential Breakouts Outside the Top 10

Movies I think will do good business that didn’t crack the list:

Backrooms

Release Date: May 29

Projected U.S. Box Office: $80 Million

This has a lot going for it. It’s (1) based on a viral YouTube series, (2) directed by the same guy who made the series (Kane Parsons), (3) produced by A24, and (4) a horror movie. I have it just outside the top 10, but there’s a decent chance it sneaks in.

Evil Dead Burn

Release Date: July 10

Projected U.S. Box Office: $70 Million

Released in April 2023, Evil Dead Rise made $67 million. In theory, with a summer release date, this one could tick a little bit higher—though I have the suspicion we may be knocking into the ceiling for this series. Still, the horror audience will show. And July is a desert for the genre.

One Night Only

Release Date: August 7

Projected U.S. Box Office: $50 Million

A rom-com with a twist: two attractive people meet on the one night sex is legal. It’s an intriguing premise (even though just thinking about it leads to endless questions). With few summer movies catering to women and August light on releases, this one could have a spark.

Young Washington

Release Date: July 3

Projected U.S. Box Office: $45 Million

Angel Films, the independent studio that had a truly surprising smash hit in the summer of 2023 with The Sound of Freedom (which made $184 at the U.S. box office), makes another play for summertime success. This time they have a patriotic film released on 4th of July weekend in the year of America’s 250th birthday. This could be catnip for middle America.

The Invite

Release Date: June 26

Projected U.S. Box Office: $35 Million

A24 has proven time and time again they have the juice. They grabbed this movie out of Sundance and it fits perfectly with the brand—delivering similar vibes to Materialists and The Drama (both of which crossed the $35 million mark). Directed by Olivia Wilde, and starring Wilde, Seth Rogen, Edward Norton, and Penelope Cruz, The Invite will provide some fun, adult counterprogramming to the bigger summer fare.

My Top 5 Most Anticipated Films of Summer 2026

I always try (and regularly fail) to separate my rooting interests from my box office predictions. That being said, here are the movies I’m most looking forward to seeing this summer…

1. Disclosure Day – A Spielberg summer movie still means something to me. So my ass is in the theater for this one.

2. The Odyssey – I don’t always love Nolan movies. But I’m always interested to see what he creates. And this one demands to be seen on the big screen (ideally in IMAX).

3. The Invite – Don’t Worry Darling didn’t pan out, but Wilde is still a good director. Her involvement, a great cast, and a “where’s that gonna go?” setup have me on the hook.

4. The End of Oak Street – I’m curious what writer-director David Robert Mitchell put together that attracted JJ Abrams, Anne Hathaway, and Ewan McGregor. I’m also slightly skeptical that the marketing is selling something different than the product.

5. Coyote vs. Acme – I’m a Looney Tunes fan from way back. I like the premise here and, of course, the backstory of Warner Bros. shelving this movie for tax purposes then selling it off to Ketchup Entertainment adds an extra layer of motivation to buy a ticket.

We’ll see how it all plays out. But, for now, I’m looking forward to summer at the movies.

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