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Rolf Kvalvik's avatar

Thank you for the analysis. Star Wars just posted its lowest opening in franchise history. A helmet and a puppet. No young female lead. Meanwhile OnlyFans did $7 billion last year, nearly matching the entire American box office. The demand didn’t disappear. Hollywood just stopped serving it.

https://wavesandpositions.substack.com/p/the-helmet-and-the-puppet-how-hollywood

Shad Connelly's avatar

This is an interesting take. The Star Wars brand definitely isn’t what it was, but it’s also been heavily diluted and oversaturated over the last 10 years. We’ll have to see how this holds, but this is actually isn’t a bad opening (it hit and slightly exceeded expectations).

Rolf Kvalvik's avatar

I'm a huge star wars fan so I want it to succeed. I actually own one the $350 Hasbro Razor Crest Toys. Unfortunately, the people in charge seem to lack an understanding of story and what consumers want. I have another even more controversial article about why star wars has lacked that original trilogy greatness. Once you understand that star wars was a team effort and one of the top two team members has been excluded since 1983. It starts to make sense. https://wavesandpositions.substack.com/p/the-hidden-architect-of-star-wars

Simon Foster's avatar

Terrific analysis! I used to wait by the letterbox for the annual Premiere magazine Summer B.O. Predictions issue to drop. I did similar over at my Screen-Space page ( https://screenspace.substack.com/p/crystal-balling-the-us-bo-the-ten ) and, apart from Mando and Grogu, there's certainly some crossover. Love your writing.

Shad Connelly's avatar

Thanks! Read yours too—similar in some ways with some notable differences (I hope you’re right about The Mandalorian). I love this pre-summer moment when anything seems possible. Of course, after the summer plays out it all seems so obvious.

Pakes on Film's avatar

I feel like Disney is not going to be happy with The Mandalorian box office even if it's massive. I think they thought Mando would be their safest of safe bets but season 3 has really soured people

Shad Connelly's avatar

You’re probably right. I also wonder about how much TV confusion this will have—people thinking (even subconsciously) “this is something I watch at home”.

Jason Godfrey's avatar

"There’s a decent chance it sneaks in" is the Backrooms read I like here. You are treating YouTube-native horror as a real theatrical pipeline, while most other outlets are (I think) still treating it as a novelty act. It's not.

Shad Connelly's avatar

It definitely isn’t. Funny thing was, I felt like I was shooting high with $80M for Backrooms. It blew that number out of the water.

Jason Godfrey's avatar

If there is anyone who could predict which indie horror films are going to go viral, tell me.