Full Disclosure: I typically take pride in not using AI for my Substack posts. But for this one, where math was involved, I did lean on ChatGPT and Claude to crunch the numbers.
Back in May—before audiences flocked to the Backrooms, before the live-action Moana sank like a stone, and before Spider-Man swung to new moneymaking heights—I took a crack at predicting the numbers for the biggest summer movies at the U.S. box office (read my original predictions post here).
At the time, I felt pretty good about my predictions. I thought things through, reviewed historical data, and employed sound logic. While I knew it was unlikely I’d hit every movie dead on, I thought I’d at least be in the ballpark. Turns out, in most cases, I wasn’t even in the same zip code.
Of course, things always look much clearer after they happen. How could I be so low on The Odyssey? How could I be that high on Supergirl? What was I thinking with One Night Only? The game plan makes a lot more sense after the game has been played.
With that in mind, I share the results of my summer 2026 box office predictions…
How My Scoring System Works
Rather than just throw a bunch of numbers at you that may or may not mean much, I created a way to score my predictions. Below is what that looks like. Each score is based on how far my prediction landed from what the movie actually made. It’s pretty simple—the higher the number, the better the prediction.
5 — Bullseye: 0–10% off actual box office
4 — On Target: 10–25% off actual box office
3 — In the Ballpark: 25–40% off actual box office
2 — Missed the Mark: 40–60% off actual box office
1 — Way Off: 60%+ off actual box office
So, for example, if I predicted a movie would make $100 million and it made $85 million:
% Error = (Actual − Predicted) / Predicted × 100
-15% = (85 - 100) / 100 x 100
15% lower than predicted → Score: 4 (On Target)
Scoring My Summer 2026 Box Office Predictions
All box office figures below are domestic only as of September 8, 2026 (my summer movie timeline runs from Memorial day weekend to Labor Day weekend).
Let’s start with my “potential breakouts”. These were movies that didn’t make my top 10, but I thought had a chance at being surprise hits:
Backrooms
Predicted: $80 Million
Actual: $198 Million
What I Said: “I have it just outside the top 10, but there’s a decent chance it sneaks in.”
What Happened: It did more than sneak in, it was one of the summer’s biggest hits (and one of the few real surprises of the season).
Score: 1 — Way Off
Evil Dead Burn
Predicted: $70 Million
Actual: $32 Million
What I Said: “Evil Dead Rise made $67 million… the horror audience will show. And July is a desert for the genre.”
What Happened: Some say lack of marketing left many horror fans unaware the movie was hitting theaters.
Score: 2 — Missed the Mark
One Night Only
Predicted: $50 Million
Actual: $12 Million
What I said: “With few summer movies catering to women and August light on releases, this one could have a spark.”
What Happened: Meh reviews (46% critic’s score on Rotten Tomatoes) and word of mouth (75% audience score) kept this from building Anyone But You-style buzz.
Score: 1 — Way Off
Young Washington
Predicted: $45 Million
Actual: $47 Million
What I said: “...a patriotic film released on 4th of July weekend in the year of America’s 250th birthday. This could be catnip for middle America.”
What happened: Indeed, this played very well over the holiday—opening to almost $20M on Fourth of July weekend.
Score: 5 — Bullseye
The Invite
Predicted: $35 Million
Actual: $26 Million
What I said: “The Invite will provide some fun, adult counterprogramming to the bigger summer fare.”
What happened: The Invite had great word of mouth and did solid indie business, but couldn’t quite reach Materialists level at the box office ($37M domestic).
Score: 3 — In the Ballpark
My Predicted Top 10
Here’s what I thought the summer domestic box office leaderboard would look like—and how it really played out
10. The End of Oak Street
Predicted: $85 Million
Actual: $52 Million
What I said: “It’s clear from the release date and marketing that Warners Bros. is positioning The End of Oak Street to be this year’s Weapons.”
What happened: Weapons opened to $43.5M in August 2025. The End of Oak Street opened to less than half that ($21M). I think people were more intrigued by this when it was mysterious than when it was revealed it was about dinosaurs.
Score: 3 — In the Ballpark
9. Scary Movie
Predicted: $95 Million
Actual: $108 Million
What I said: “...there’s a lot of new material to mine and an audience that grew up with these movies.”
What happened: While Scary Movie didn’t have great legs or reviews, it opened with a whopping $54M—taking advantage of an early-summer release date an riding off the horror wave of Obsession and Backrooms.
Score: 4 — On Target
8. Disclosure Day
Predicted: $110 Million
Actual: $117 Million
What I said: “Ready Player One, a more commercial film released in a pre-2020 world, capped out at $137 domestic … Still, it has a great cast and a legendary director …”
What happened: This did solid business for an original film in 2026, but amid good-not-great word of mouth couldn’t quite break out and go next level.
Score: 5 — Bullseye
7. Supergirl
Predicted: $145 Million
Actual: $72 Million
What I said: “Just last summer, Superman made $354 million in the United States … This one has a fairly uninspiring trailer and the burden of comparison.”
What happened: I thought I was shooting low with my projection, but apparently not low enough. This one just never built enough positive buzz, feeling like another superhero cash out rather than a must-see event.
Score: 2 — Missed the Mark
6. Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu
Predicted: $265 Million
Actual: $178 Million
What I said: “...many are predicting this to only do Solo numbers ($213 million domestic). I think there will be a little more love for this movie with Jon Favreau at the helm.”
What happened: This did less than Solo numbers, a major disappointment for Disney. But the fact that it did as well as it did is almost impressive considering the buzz on this was it just felt like two episodes of the TV show stitched together.
Score: 3 — In the Ballpark
5. Moana (Live Action)
Predicted: $295 Million
Actual: $126 Million
What I said: “While I don’t necessarily think this will be a Snow White-level bomb ($87 million), I called this closer to The Little Mermaid ($298 million) than Lilo and Stitch ($423 million).”
What happened: This was a Snow White-level bomb. Whether it was too soon after Moana (2016) and Moana 2 (2024), there were too many other big family movies this summer, or it didn’t look unique enough, families did not turn out for this.
Score: 2 — Missed the Mark
4. The Odyssey
Predicted: $325 Million
Actual: $589 Million
What I said: “IMAX has also become much more of a powerhouse … this movie has a stacked cast of old and young stars … $300 million+ not only seems reasonable, it might be the floor.”
What happened: This movie opened strong ($124M), owned IMAX screens for a large part of the summer, and had phenomenal legs (it’s still going).
Score: 1 — Way Off
3. Minions & Monsters
Predicted: $350 Million
Actual: $183 Million
What I said: “In 2022, Minions: The Rise of Gru made $370 million. In 2024, Despicable Me 4 made $361 million … I think Minions are about as reliable a box office bet as you can find.”
What happened: Either Toy Story 5 just swallowed the summer moviegoing for families or we may be finally starting to see signs of franchise fatigue with the Minions.
Score: 2 — Missed the Mark
2. Toy Story 5
Predicted: $425 Million
Actual: $480 Million
What I said: “Toy Story 4, which had a near identical June release date, ended up making $434 million … should we expect Toy Story 5 to put up better numbers than its predecessor?”
What happened: Toy Story 5 put up better numbers than its predecessor—though not by much (and not when you adjust the numbers for inflation). But this was THE family movie of the summer.
Score: 4 — On Target
1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day
Predicted: $550 Million
Actual: $923 Million
What I said: “... if there’s one thing we know about Spidey, he puts butts in seats. So if Spider-Man: Homecoming made $335 million and No Way Home made $814, I’m looking at this one to split the difference.”
What happened: Brand New Day broke the record for biggest opening weekend EVER—raking in $360 million domestic—on its way to (likely) becoming the top-grossing domestic movie of all time.
Score: 1 — Way Off
My Prediction Scorecard
Overall Score: 2.6/5
Close Predictions: 4/15 within 25% (Young Washington, Disclosure Day, Toy Story 5, Scary Movie)
Closest Prediction: Young Washington — 4.4% off
Biggest Miss: Spider-Man: Brand New Day — predicted $550M, actual $923M (largest dollar gap, +$373M)
Biggest Underestimate: Backrooms (+147.5% — you predicted $80M, it made $198M)
Biggest Overestimate: One Night Only (−76.0% — you predicted $50M, it made just $12M)
Top 10 Hit Rate: 9/10 correctly predicted
Overall, if there’s one takeaway from this summer it’s that predicting the box office is hard. Even when you know that a movie is going to hit or miss, determining by how much is a challenge. But that won’t stop me from trying again next summer.
Great calls on a few of these, especially getting so close with Disclosure Day. Moana and Supergirl tanking were hard to predict for everyone.
Great reflective piece. It’s wild and exciting that predictions for the likes of “moana” and “mando” were way-off and it made way for other smaller films gaining the attention!